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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."